There was a time, not so long ago, that Florida was the swingiest of swing states. From the “hanging chads” disaster of 2000 which handed the White House to George W. Bush to razor-thin races for governor and senate through 2018 all barely tipping Republican.
The dam broke as Gov. Ron DeSantis cruised to reelection in a 20-point blowout. Donald Trump carried the state in both his campaigns and looks on track to win here again in November. It was whispered that the party wouldn’t spend a dime here in 2024.
But the race has tightened. The Harris campaign is generating excitement, which is closing the polling gap. Real Clear Politics poll average shows Trump +6.3. But that is an average. Since mid-July, when he led by 10, polls have trended toward Harris, who was just down three points in a recent FAU poll.
Does this mean Florida is truly competitive, or just a blue mirage? Possibly both. The signs are out there if you know where to look.
Cautiously Optimistic
Neither Harris nor Trump are bombarding local airwaves, but their campaigns are active. Harris’ campaign launched LGBTQ initiative Out For Harris last weekend.
The campaign will be in Palm Beach County to launch a multi-state bus campaign highlighting reproductive freedom.
Down ballot sees Democrats making progress. School board races in Miami-Dade and Broward have been kind to LGBTQ allies.
Tussle for Tallahassee
Republicans hold solid majorities in both chambers in the state legislature and will still be in the majority next session. However, Democrats believe they can win enough seats to end the GOP supermajority.
They will need to flip five seats in the House and three seats in the Senate. Right now they are powerless to the point they can’t even introduce a bill without getting at least one Republican to sign on.
Reproductive Rights & Recreational Weed
Two very high-profile amendments will be on the ballot. Amendment Four focuses on reproductive rights and would expand abortion access beyond the six-week limit. Similar measures have passed in “red” states in recent years.
Amendment Three legalizes recreational use of marijuana (medical use is currently permitted in Florida).
Similar measures have passed in “red” states in recent years. However, Florida requires amendments to get 60% of the vote.
Democrats believe these initiatives will drive women and young voters to the polls.
Trump, who calls Florida home, is having a tough time with these measures. He flip-flopped several times on abortion and seems to support marijuana, which upsets much of his base here and in other states.
Even if Trump wins Florida, it’s not a complete loss for democrats. Every dollar he’s forced to spend here is a dollar that isn’t going to buy ads in Pittsburgh, Grand Rapids, Mich., Las Vegas, Tempe, Ariz., Savannah, Ga. and other key markets in swing states.
If Trump and the RNC can be distracted by shoring up the state and Democrats can capitalize on their down-ballot momentum, Florida will have served its role for 2024 and be on its way to reclaiming swing-state status.
